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Hawks vs. rabbits

Just before I sat down to write this editorial, I took my dog out into the yard. A moment later a golden hawk took off into the air with a dead rabbit grasped in its talons. It flew by me, only about thirty feet away, and landed on a branch in the Cedar tree by my neighbor’s house. The rabbit dangled feet down, its white tail like a marshmallow. This is the beauty of living in the Santa Monica mountains, an LA hidden gem only twenty minutes from Tarzana!

 I was planning to write about the U.S. presidential election, which is only 11 days away. Was the hawk rabbit thing a metaphor? Was it a signal?

I’m definitely looking for signs at the moment, anything to give direction in this baffling time. A look at the polls is all it takes to terrify this spooky season, and like many rationale people I am repeatedly befuddled by how the race is effectively tied. I’ve made the case that support for Donald Trump by many wealthy and powerful leaders in crypto is greatly troubling and cowardly. I haven’t changed my mind one bit on that, yet the recent Trump displays, in terms of his violent rhetoric and an inability to speak coherently, should give anyone pause as to what he will do if given the power of the presidency.

Name checking prominent Democrats like Adam Schiff and Nancy Pelosi, Trump has recently said several times that “the enemy from within” – meaning his political rivals – should be dealt with through military force.

“But I don't think they're the problem in terms of Election Day. I think the bigger problem are the people from within,” Trump said on Fox Business on Oct. 13. “We have some very bad people. We have some sick people, radical-left lunatics. And I think… and it should be very easily handled by, if necessary, by National Guard or if really necessary by the military, because they can't let that happen.”

I’m sure some would defend this by saying it’s simply hyperbole to stir up his base. I’d counter that this is the man who sicced a violent mob on the Capitol to overturn the 2020 election, then refused to call in National Guard troops to help the innocent people fearing for their lives. I’d argue he still refuses to say the last election was fair, which it was, and that he lost, which he did.

Then there’s Trump’s obvious mental decline that no one seems to want to take seriously. Did you see him dance for half an hour at that rally? Did you see the interview he gave to Bloomberg’s John Micklethwait? Micklethwait had to keep reminding Trump that he asked about tariffs or Google when Trump went completely off topic. He also went on several gibberish rants about Jan. 6. I suppose mental decline that’s slow and doddering, like Biden’s, can’t be tolerated, but mental decline that creates batshit crazy word salads is just fine? Again, I need direction.

And yet polls show Americans are deadlocked between Trump and Kamala Harris. This only makes sense to me when I remember that misogyny is probably a bigger problem than racism in this country, and that many conservatives will do whatever it takes to have the power to keep transforming the U.S. judicial system. Trump could get two more Supreme Court nominations if elected, after all. The hard-right has been playing that game for decades and had its Holy Grail moment when Roe was overturned.

Sticking with polls for a minute, the controversy at Polymarket, the blockchain-based prediction market, has been fun to watch unfold. I find it amusing when folks confuse betting markets with political polling. They are not the same, at all. If you haven’t heard, Trump has about a 65 percent chance of winning, according to Polymarket betting. That’s based on $2.4 billion worth of wagers, by the way, by far Polymaket’s most lucrative betting pool. The thing is, however, Trump doesn’t have that kind of lead in any traditional poll at the moment. And that’s the problem, people are confusing the betting with how Americans will vote.

It turns out there are a handful of traders on Polymarket who are willing to bet huge sums that Trump will be the next president. Like $45 million worth of bets, which came from a French dude with the username Fredi9999, so you know we’re in the land of la la here. Polymarket says its system is superior to polling and that it has uncovered no manipulation in the presidential race.

“Studies show that prediction markets like Polymarket tend to outperform traditional pollsters because participants are financially incentivized to be correct. This creates more thoughtful, data-driven predictions,” the company says on its web site. “Polymarket provides a constantly updating picture of public sentiment, offering a degree of accuracy and timeliness that traditional pollsters, who typically report data that is days old, simply cannot match.”

That’s all well and good, but they don’t mention the outsize effect folks like Fredi9999 can have. If I answer a poll about who I’m voting for I get one vote. On Polymarket I’m only limited by my budget and can skew results to create a narrative. That’s why betting markets should never inform political decisions. Oh, and one last thing. All this Polymarket betting is by people outside the U.S. Americans aren’t allowed to use its service.

As for the hawk, I came inside and went to a window to watch it perched on the Cedar branch. Its tail feathers fanned like a deck of honey-brown and tan playing cards and the rabbit’s legs poked out underneath. Then the hawk let the rabbit go, and it fell into the bushes below. I couldn’t tell if the bird had been startled, or if this is how it eats its prey. I kept watching, for a few minutes, then longer. Half an hour went by and the hawk hadn’t moved. I kept expecting it to jump down and retrieve the rabbit, but it didn’t.

I came to my desk and began writing, and after an hour I went back to check. The bird had gone, and I wondered if it decided to just leave it all behind and go get another rabbit. But then it came back, and I began watching it again. It patiently sat on its branch, knowing its kill was just below it and that it would eat on its own time, and I began to feel what it must be like to be that rabbit. – Matthew Leising, editor in chief, Decential Media

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